Friday, January 31, 2014

Predicting The Super Bong...GET IT!!!

I've been breaking down the Super Bowl in my own unique way since this blog’s creation. This is the 8th year that I've instituted my 15-prong attack to figure how Sunday's game will shake out. I successfully predicted a Colts win and cover in our first try at this. In 2008, the numbers favored the Patriots but without covering. In year 3, it had the Steelers by 14 which was dumb. In 2010, we called for a Saints upset victory. Three years ago, we swung and missed more than Adam Dunn as we liked the Steelers to lose yet cover but were thankful that they FAILED MISERABLY. Of course, we nailed the Giants to win and parlayed that with the under in 2012. Last year, we also rocked the shit out of the Joe Flacco ELITE train. So to sum up, the system is nailing the outright winner at 88% and the spread at a 73% clip. I expect to continue our traditional winning ways this year. As a reminder, I don't know how this breakdown will go until I finish it. Personally, I have no real feel on this game at all. I can’t look at either team and say “yes, this is why they will definitely win” as I have been able to do the last few years. This is a tough game to handicap. Read the last Super Bowl betting news and odds here as Denver seems to be pretty set as a 2.5 point favorite which is usually Vegas code for "we have no idea".  Let’s look at the standings for our NFL Playoffs Contest. Remember, RIBS are on the line (and we have new leaders):

7-3: Andrew B and Damman
6-4: Seal, Larry, and Cakes/Dut (WTF?)
5-5: G$, Grumpy, JSaul, Mr. Ace, NC Nate, Jeff, Prime, Randall Stevens, Drew, MUDawg, Ide, and J from JBeanie
4-6: Buke (uh oh…better blame the dry heat)

Remember that this pick is worth two points and let's add a tie-breaker as well. How about...combined receiving yards of Wes Welker and Eric Decker who lead this game in grit (closest wins; if somehow you are equally close, Price is Right rules apply where low man is victorious). We have 4 guys and two queers that could win this. DO WORK DOGGIES! Now let's get to MY 15 POINT SYSTEM:

Still owns a flip phone...GUARANSHEED
QB - Ugh.  This is ESPN's freaking dream. Two nice guys that will never turn down an opportunity to give a fluff interview. I will forever scream that Rusty sucks and RG3 will always be superior. Peyton is a full touchdown better OBVZ. Broncos +6

RB – While I fully support Knowshon’s commitment to Francis Scott Key and America via his huge tears, Beast Mode is too ELITE to ignore. He takes the points here because Skittles are delicious and I love how mad old white men get that he won’t talk to them. Seahawks +2

WR/TE – I owned Golden Tate in two leagues this year (I have a problem) and he is the worst. Percy Harvin MIGHT play but who cares because he’s just going to get hurt again anyway. Doug Baldwin might be the whitest name ever for a black guy. You can say a lot of things about Denver’s receiving corps but they do have way more grit and scrap. Broncos +3

OL – This is always a tough category to dish out points for. It seems like Denver has all Texas Tech alums on their OL and that can’t be good because the Red Raiders are irrelevant. Giacomini is a fun name to say so Seattle gets the points. Seahawks +1

DL – Denver would have lost a lot in this had awful human being, Von Miller, not gotten hurt. And I love men who are nicknamed after ELITE meals. Pot Roast is my guy! But yeah, Seattle’s DL is terrific and I am happy for Cliff Avril for having escaped Detroit while he still could. Seahawks +2

LB – This is why I get paid the big bucks, folks, as I can only name one of the six starting LBs in the Super Bowl. Bobby Wagner gets the points! Seahawks +2

PLAYED STANFORD FOOTBALL
DB – I hate Richard Sherman. I love Champ Bailey. That cat deserves to win a ring as he has been one of the best DBs in the league forever. The Skins should have never traded him (even though I will always love Sheriff Gonna Getcha). But we know who the better unit is here so I must set my feelings aside. Seahawks +5

K/P – Prater and Hauschka both had great seasons but neither one kicks straight on field goals like a REAL MAN. I’ll give Prater a point for tying the record for longest FG this season but I’m not happy doing it. Broncos +1

Return Game – Trindon Holiday seems to always break one big return and I assume that it will happen again. I already mentioned how terrible Golden Tate is. And they won’t put Harvin back there because he might have an upset stomach. Broncos +2

Coach – I am very much not a fan of Pete Carroll but I trust him a hell of a lot more than I do John Fox who is so conservative that he makes Burke look like Ed Begley Jr. Count it! Even when you look at the coordinators, other teams wanted Bevell and Quinn way more than they did Gase and Del Rio. Seahawks +2

City – I have been to both places and they are each fantastic areas of America. I guess if I had to choose to live in either city, I would pick Denver because they have hockey/basketball and FUCK ROBINSON CANO. Denver +2

Fans – I just learned a few weeks ago that when the other QB throws a pass that goes wanting, the fans chant IN-COM-PLETE at Mile High or whatever it’s called now. That’s stupid. Speaking of stupid, The 12th Man! I hate Seahawks fans. HATE THEM. Kempton 22 much? Broncos +3
My penis is this...WIDE!

Celebrity Fans – Holy shit. I’m asking myself to choose between Macklemore and 2013 Money Shot Man of the Year Rob Ford? Macklemore is an embarrassment to all of mankind. Rob Ford is a king among men. Broncos +4

Organization – It basically comes down to “do I like John Elway” versus “do you like your iPhone”. I like my iPhone way more than a guy who made a living destroying the hopes and dreams of the Browns. Seahawks +3

Against The Spread – These two teams were almost a carbon copy against the number this season. The Seahawks were 12-6 while Denver was 11-6-1. These teams did most of their covering at home though. The fun FACT is that both squadrons have gone UNDER the number in their last FOUR games. That’s a nice trend and fits into my narrative of TAKE THE UNDER IN THIS GAME. Seahawks +1

Before we add it up, 75% of the public bets are going to Denver and that is scary because the public is dumb and bets with their heart more than they should. Two weeks ago, I said that I was leaning Denver -2.5. Now…I’m not so sure. The #1 defense facing the #1 offense in less than ideal conditions seems like it might be a bad play to bet on the firepower. Prediction Machine, which ran 50K simulations of the game, likes Seattle to win outright. They have nailed the winner in 9 of the 10 Super Bowls that they’ve done this. It all comes down to Russell Wilson. If he is just a little bit better than average, Seattle is going to win. If not, they lose. It’s that simple. So let’s add up my numbers and see what THE SYSTEM thinks:

(bleep bloop bleep)

Well, I’ve got Denver beating Seattle 21-18. Like I said, I’m not sure that I agree with this but, as ESPN tells us, NUMBERS NEVER LIE. I haven’t dove into the props much like I usually do, but I think you would be safe going UNDER on all the receivers. ALL of them. Sure, you’ll lose one or two, but I bet that you win 5-6. If Denver wins, Peyton is the surefire MVP. Should Seattle pull the upset, BEEF MOE is a good bet. So for my contest entry, I’ve got Denver and put me down for a tiebreaker of 112 combined Decker/Welker yards receiving. Enjoy the game on Sunday.

31 comments:

Mr. Ace said...

Sounds like the weather is going to be pretty IDEal. I just don't see Seattle keeping up. They aren't going to be able to get to Peyton. Rusty Dubs ain't carrying a team to victory. Denver by at least 7. White guys 147.

GMoney said...

FYI, no Super Bowl live journal this year. It's too much work and I have to deal with a pregnant wife AND a dog who currently has hives (not fun). I am making a "righteous 'boli" on Sunday as Guy Fieri would stupidly say though.

GMoney said...

Ape, you got any props that you like? With an opera singer doing the anthem, the over seems likely there. Peyton also averages 33 OMAHAs per game so the over 27.5 there seems rock solid.

And again, I like the under on almost all passing stats.

Jeff said...

BRONCOS, 111 yds, 4 drops.

There is a good possibility that all Seahawk players took another cycle of roids this week. If that's the case, game over. Pey Pey sacked 8 times and Seattle rushes for 300+ yds.

GMoney said...

How can you believe that "they won't get to Peyton" anyway? Dude is slower than Cakes. With the way that the Hawks jam receivers, he won't be able to unload a lot of quick passes. You need to study the tape with Jaws more because that doesn't make sense.

GMoney said...

By the way, and I'm not proud to admit this, Caliendo had me cracking up on M&M this morning. No seriously. He did a Jerry Stiller impression! And a white guy doing the voice of Tom Jackson, Keyshawn, and Cris Carter will always be funny to me. It's like blackface...always hilarious.

Jeff said...

We can only hope we get the see the Peyton naked boot at the goal line with him out running Dick Sherm to the pylon.

Prime99 said...

Jeff smoothly goes one yard under G$ to be hilarious or dumb, unsure which?

I'll TAEK Denver and 163 yards.

I don't care for either team, though it should be a good game.

GMoney said...

I can't win (like I usually do) so it doesn't matter.

You know who else doesn't win? Alex Ovechkin who is a whopping MINUS NINE against the CBJ in the last two games they've played against each other. Seriously, I could do better than that.

Bob is the superior Russian no guff.

Anonymous said...

Broncos.. 187

Dut

Anonymous said...

Seattle 27
Denver 24

I'm rooting for Peyton and Denver tho.

Food tip for Columbus people on Sunday. There is an AMAZING fried chicken food truck in Clintonville called Maya's. The owner makes special huge wings for the super bowl each year and sells them for $1 a wing...they are huge. He has a special themed sauce for each team in the Super Bowl as well. It's tremendous.

--Drew

Anonymous said...

And I have no idea how cakes and I are on the same team. I h8 cakes.

Dut

Anonymous said...

Oh...receiving yards...86 for the crackers.

--Drew

GMoney said...

Dut, you each missed a week so you combined your homo powers. I thought that it was fair since no one likes either of you.

Drew is buying everyone wings. You heard him.

Anonymous said...

Broncos, 110.

j Saul

GMoney said...

Welcome back to the Bus, JSaul!

Anonymous said...

Seattle - 133

Who the fuck is Andrew B and why hasnt he posted his pick yet?

Seal

GMoney said...

He always posts last. An enigma. A very intelligent enigma.

Anonymous said...

Denver

150 for the honkeys

-Damman

Anonymous said...

SEA
124 for Dwelcker

J from JBeanie

Randall Stevens said...

Seattle, as much as it pains me. 188 yards for the Caucasian persuasion.

That tabloid website ESPN reported yesterday that some zoo ape that has correctly picked the Super Bowl winner the last 6 years picked Seattle. So OBVZ anyone who picked Denver is gonna lose.

GMoney said...

If I've learned anything from this site, it is that Ape's know nothing. Oh sure, they'll unload some HOT SPROTS TAEKS every once in awhile, but they are 100% idiotic.

Count it.

Will Cakes be pissed that Dut made "their" pick? Who knows but Cakes went 4-2 in his two weeks of picking for the Ambiguously Gay Duo. Smarter than Dutdog.

Anonymous said...

DEN with the White Knights going for 200. I spoke to a NFL player with INSIDE knowledge and came away confident that I'm going to be right on this one.

Ide

Anonymous said...

Cheering against the Seahawks has become as easy as cheering against the ravens & steelers. This is really a good vs evil matchup & if the Broncos win maybe the ridiculous notion that eli is better than Peyton will finally stop.

Those of you who are familiar with the stube regulars or have ever met that disgusting slob melinda should know that she is a Broncos fan. Her happiness is something that makes me cringe & will do the same if any of you know who I'm talking about...however, unlike you columbus folks, I will likely never see her again so I'm allowing myself to pull for Denver...

My pick is irrelavant, but I'm going to do it anyway....
28-24 Broncos
White guys 167

Buke

GMoney said...

I believe that you have called Melinda a cunt to her face numerous times. She is as awful as she is gross.

I had no idea that she was a Broncos fan. I was under the impression that the only Broncos fan that I ever knew was Hinkleman! Count it!

GMoney said...

Way to protect your source, Ide. Chris Kluwe would be pissed if you outed him after taking his seed.

Anonymous said...

Famed former NY Giant OL David Deihl!

Anonymous said...

Former local city counsil candidate Paul Hinkleman? A man who I believe fell short of the 25 vote plateau every time he ran for office...

Anonymous said...

SEA
148 for the Whites

Andrew B.

Anonymous said...

SEA and 149 for the whites

Larry

Anonymous said...

Denver.
135

NC Nate