Fool, if it wasn't for Serge here, you and your cuz both would be cadaverous motherfuckers.
Daily reader and occasional anonymous commenter, Reba (formerly the Hottest Bartender in Columbus, if you remember), is celebrating his 31st birthday today. Buke, if I forgot to send you a text, then Happy Birthday. To celebrate, he is heading up to Las Vegas for the weekend. We have had a couple of marathon text sessions regarding Super Bowl gambling. He wants tips from me because he knows that I am ELITE. Well, I’ve done the dirty work and am ready to make everyone money (because I don’t gamble as gambling on sports is a SIN!). I have listed my top ten favorite Super Bowl bets for this weekend (with #1 being my most confident bet). They are below.
BONUS! Peyton Manning will play for the Redskins next year at 4:1. This just feels like such a Snyder move. The Jets are surprisingly 2:1 and the Dolphins are 3:1, but I think that the Li’l General will go nuts and sign Pey Pey and Reggie Wayne. Because he is insane.
10. Longshot MVPs – LESBIONEST, this award is 95% guaranteed to go to either Brady or Eli. But I cashed in a few years ago on Santonio at 15:1 and thus I will always recommend throwing a little down on someone else. For New England, it pretty much has to be Gronk, right? I don’t know what his odds are, but that is about the only option. For the Giants, I like Jason Pierre-Paul as a sleeper. He is a goddamn freak and he will get at least 2 sacks. In a low scoring game, if JPP goes for 3 sacks and a fumble, you could make a killing.
9. Total sacks (both teams combined) O/U 4 – OVER. Neither QB moves very well. The Giants could get to 4 by halftime.
8. Ahmad Bradshaw total carries O/U 14.5 – UNDER. This just feels like way too many so I researched it. In 3 playoff games this year, Bradshaw has only had more than 14 carries once. I don’t know why this number is so high. The Giants would be stupid not to throw on that defense and if they want to pound it, you use Brandon Jacobs.
7. Times that the David Tyree play are shown O/U 1 – PUSH (can you bet a push?). You can bet your ass that it gets shown at least once, but I can’t think of a reason why it would be shown more than once. I suppose if I had to pick one, I’d take the over though. Maybe once in the first half and then again if the Giants are driving late in a close game.
6. New York Giants +2.5 – I don’t need your pick until tomorrow, so I will just say this. The 2011 Giants are way better than the 2007 Giants. The 2011 Patriots are way worse than the 2007 Patriots. For as great as Belichick and Brady are, they seem confused as shit by this Giants front four. And also, I was driving to Oxford this Fall and was listening to one of those radio shows by Johnny Vegas or whatever giving out betting tips and Johnny dropped a really interesting stat. Over the last 5 years, teams that are 2.5 point favorites cover the spread less than 30% of the time. That is sort of amazing (if true). So make a note of that if you gamble…if you see a 2.5 line, take the underdog always.
5. Wes Welker total receiving yards O/U 76.5 – OVER. Brady isn’t going to get a lot of time to look downfield which means a lot of checkdowns and hot reads. That is the name of Welker’s game. Also, this feels like one of those games where Kevin Faulk will be annoying and get a bunch of touches. If you can find a book that offers Faulk bets, take the over.
4. Number of times Peyton Manning is shown on TV DURING the game O/U 3.5 - UNDER. NBC is pretty professional with their coverage. They know that the story is the GAME, not the brother of the starting QB. If they show him all the time, NBC will get slaughtered in the press for it so I think that they keep the cameras on the field.
3. Number of Zoltan Mesko punts O/U 3.5 – OVER. Really? Have you see the Giants Defense? The Pats will punt 4 times in the first half. Plus, you can bet on ZOLTAN MESKO!
2. Victor Cruz total receiving yards (doesn’t matter what the number is because it’s going to get obliterated but if you care, it's 89.5) – OVER. He’s going to be covered by Julian Edelman for the majority of the game (which is a HUGE mistake). Actually, you might want to put 10 bucks on DFL Legend Victor Cruz for MVP.
1. First Half O/U 27.5 – UNDER. I love this bet. First of all, the O/U on the game is way too high to begin with. But you all know how Super Bowls work. The first two or three possessions for each team is a conservative, “feel ‘em out” process and the first quarter usually ends 3-0 or 7-3. I GUARANTEE that the first half under hits here just based on the nerves and teams needing to settle down. There won’t be enough “in the flow of the game” possessions to get to 28 points.
Thoughts? Got your own props that you like? WANT TO KEEP TALKING ABOUT PEYTON MANNING NON-STOP SOME MORE??? Go get ‘em. And remember to wish only Reba a Happy Birfday.