Thursday, February 02, 2012

Prop Joe On Prop Betting

Fool, if it wasn't for Serge here, you and your cuz both would be cadaverous motherfuckers.
We’ve waited long enough. It’s time to start focusing on the last real football game until Labor Day. I don’t watch Sportscenter much anymore so I have not yet been strangled to death by the analysis of stupid people. If you have been, I’m sorry, but that’s your fault. You should have known better. Tomorrow, we will actually be getting out my old 15 pronged (just like your mother’s favorite dildo) Super Bowl predictor to figure out who will win on Sunday, but today, we analyze the betting.

Daily reader and occasional anonymous commenter, Reba (formerly the Hottest Bartender in Columbus, if you remember), is celebrating his 31st birthday today. Buke, if I forgot to send you a text, then Happy Birthday. To celebrate, he is heading up to Las Vegas for the weekend. We have had a couple of marathon text sessions regarding Super Bowl gambling. He wants tips from me because he knows that I am ELITE. Well, I’ve done the dirty work and am ready to make everyone money (because I don’t gamble as gambling on sports is a SIN!). I have listed my top ten favorite Super Bowl bets for this weekend (with #1 being my most confident bet). They are below.

BONUS! Peyton Manning will play for the Redskins next year at 4:1. This just feels like such a Snyder move. The Jets are surprisingly 2:1 and the Dolphins are 3:1, but I think that the Li’l General will go nuts and sign Pey Pey and Reggie Wayne. Because he is insane.

10. Longshot MVPs – LESBIONEST, this award is 95% guaranteed to go to either Brady or Eli. But I cashed in a few years ago on Santonio at 15:1 and thus I will always recommend throwing a little down on someone else. For New England, it pretty much has to be Gronk, right? I don’t know what his odds are, but that is about the only option. For the Giants, I like Jason Pierre-Paul as a sleeper. He is a goddamn freak and he will get at least 2 sacks. In a low scoring game, if JPP goes for 3 sacks and a fumble, you could make a killing.

9. Total sacks (both teams combined) O/U 4 – OVER. Neither QB moves very well. The Giants could get to 4 by halftime.

8. Ahmad Bradshaw total carries O/U 14.5 – UNDER. This just feels like way too many so I researched it. In 3 playoff games this year, Bradshaw has only had more than 14 carries once. I don’t know why this number is so high. The Giants would be stupid not to throw on that defense and if they want to pound it, you use Brandon Jacobs.

7. Times that the David Tyree play are shown O/U 1 – PUSH (can you bet a push?). You can bet your ass that it gets shown at least once, but I can’t think of a reason why it would be shown more than once. I suppose if I had to pick one, I’d take the over though. Maybe once in the first half and then again if the Giants are driving late in a close game.

6. New York Giants +2.5 – I don’t need your pick until tomorrow, so I will just say this. The 2011 Giants are way better than the 2007 Giants. The 2011 Patriots are way worse than the 2007 Patriots. For as great as Belichick and Brady are, they seem confused as shit by this Giants front four. And also, I was driving to Oxford this Fall and was listening to one of those radio shows by Johnny Vegas or whatever giving out betting tips and Johnny dropped a really interesting stat. Over the last 5 years, teams that are 2.5 point favorites cover the spread less than 30% of the time. That is sort of amazing (if true). So make a note of that if you gamble…if you see a 2.5 line, take the underdog always.

5. Wes Welker total receiving yards O/U 76.5 – OVER. Brady isn’t going to get a lot of time to look downfield which means a lot of checkdowns and hot reads. That is the name of Welker’s game. Also, this feels like one of those games where Kevin Faulk will be annoying and get a bunch of touches. If you can find a book that offers Faulk bets, take the over.

4. Number of times Peyton Manning is shown on TV DURING the game O/U 3.5 - UNDER. NBC is pretty professional with their coverage. They know that the story is the GAME, not the brother of the starting QB. If they show him all the time, NBC will get slaughtered in the press for it so I think that they keep the cameras on the field.

3. Number of Zoltan Mesko punts O/U 3.5 – OVER. Really? Have you see the Giants Defense? The Pats will punt 4 times in the first half. Plus, you can bet on ZOLTAN MESKO!

2. Victor Cruz total receiving yards (doesn’t matter what the number is because it’s going to get obliterated but if you care, it's 89.5) – OVER. He’s going to be covered by Julian Edelman for the majority of the game (which is a HUGE mistake). Actually, you might want to put 10 bucks on DFL Legend Victor Cruz for MVP.

1. First Half O/U 27.5 – UNDER. I love this bet. First of all, the O/U on the game is way too high to begin with. But you all know how Super Bowls work. The first two or three possessions for each team is a conservative, “feel ‘em out” process and the first quarter usually ends 3-0 or 7-3. I GUARANTEE that the first half under hits here just based on the nerves and teams needing to settle down. There won’t be enough “in the flow of the game” possessions to get to 28 points.

Thoughts? Got your own props that you like? WANT TO KEEP TALKING ABOUT PEYTON MANNING NON-STOP SOME MORE??? Go get ‘em. And remember to wish only Reba a Happy Birfday.

30 comments:

Grumpy said...

31is now a milestone requiring a trip to Vegas?

MVP=Ocho Cinco

Anonymous said...

It is when you're a degenerate gambler. Speaking of which, I got a free trip to Atlantic City for the SB. I will be relaxing and placing numerous bets.

Ide

GMoney said...

Milestone? No. Worth the four hour drive from Phoenix to watch/bet the SB under the guise of a birthday celebration? Mos Def.

Not worth it? Atlantic City EVER.

How about them Jackets losing with 1 second left last night? FAIL 4 NAIL!!!

GMoney said...

Ide, are you feeling the Prop Joe love?

Grumpy said...

I am, dude was one cool customer.

MuDawgfan said...

I must say, outside of G$ telling bad ass stories about 7th-8th grade 24 man basketball team - I enjoy these gambling posts the most.

Curious as to what the O/U for carries is for BGE and Woodhead.

GMoney said...

But Dawg, you REALLY love those 7th and 8th grade basketball stories. Here's a little blurb for you:

It's been a long time since the 7th grade Cats had 11 points at halftime up in Perrysburg and finished the game with 12.

Funniest part from that game: we outscored ourselves in the second half. That's right, Schriner (or maybe Nathan Miller) made a basket at the wrong hoop somehow as the Wildcats were defeated by the Wildcats in the 2nd half, 2-1.

We lost that game by a million. This was the best worst team of all time.

Anonymous said...

Im surprised you dont have the total sacks and Bradshaw touches ranked higher, those almost seem like locks to me.

Also, should this be a close game, and Eli is driving in the fourth quarter, that number of times Peyton is shown goes way over.

The David Tyree bet is the biggest sucker bet ever - no reason they show this more than once.

Seal

Anonymous said...

Victor Cruz is a legend.

I drafted him one year pre-mature.

I won 2 of my 5 Fantasy leagues this year, and they both featured the likes of Victor Cruz.....

I know its not Rex's fault since he wasn't in on the joke, but we all know if I would have been there this year Victor would have been on my squad and that could have changed to 3 championship teams with my boy Victor....

- J Saul

GMoney said...

Victor Cruz wasn't going to beat my ELITE team. Pump yo brakes, bitch.

Seal, they will be tempted to show Peyton constantly, but like I said, I think they resist because the game isn't about him. The last two years, Vegas had props for how many times Kim Kardashian and Jerry Jones were shown on camera and Kim wasn't shown at all during the Saints title and Jerry was only shown once last year.

Bradshaw isn't even practicing so you should be jumping all over that UNDER.

Anonymous said...

I'd go strongly over on both the Peyton and Tyree showings.

Here's one...

Will G$ take a shit during the Super Bowl due to all of the food he will be eating? I'm betting on YES.

--Drew

GMoney said...

Great question, Drew! I'm going to say no. You will lose that bet. But the menu is incredible (I have been working on it for weeks). BBQ beef sandwiches (sauce made by my hands) and grilled nachos (for the wife even though I will end up eating 2/3rds of it).

The Iceman said...

My longshot MVP is Aaron Hernandez. If Gronker plays, it won't be long and it won't be well. Tom Brady hearts his TEs more than Commenter Brady hearts 17 year old black kids wearing shoulder pads.

My prop bet is how many times G$ uses his flesh light DURING the game. We'll set it at 1.5.

I'll make my pick now because I don't give a shit about numbers and spread shifts. Patriots...big.

GMoney said...

BREAKING NEWS!!!

Jim Tressel has been named the "Vice President of Strategic Engagement" at The University of Akron. I have no idea what the fuck this means or if it is even a real job.

Anonymous said...

G$....It means he's about to engage Akron Football itno strategically kicking the shit out of Ape's Toledo and your Miami year in and year out.

--Drew

Anonymous said...

I saw the over/under on ocho cinco catches is .5. It pays +135 if you take the over. I feel like the patriots will give him a catch because he bought the team expensive ass headphones. I GUARANSHEED that happens. Take my advice and give me a portion of the winnings.

Victor Cruz definitely stayed on the waiver wire too long in the dfl. I think everyone was afraid of getting ridiculed after Jsauls brilliant strategy to draft him in every league after seeing him dominate on hard Kocks.

I drank a shitload of wine at a work dinner last night, and my poop is black today. Anyone ever experience this?

I don't mean to bring up recruiting again, but did anyone see Kyle dodsons announcement yesterday? Look it up on YouTube. Normally I'm not a fan of self promoting high schoolers, but I thought that was fantastic.

Dut

Brady said...

Victor Cruz is being covered by Julian Edelman? This may be an instance where Belichick starts believing his own hype. Dude thinks he can get away with anything. Cruz may have 300 yards if he sticks with Edelman all game.

Good gambling post G$. I really can't find anything that I want to argue with you on (which may be the most damning evidence to switch your bets right now considering my playoff record this year).

I would LOVE to be in Vegas for the SB. I was at the Mandalay Bay sports book in the regular season and it was fucking nuts. I can only imagine what it would be like for the super bowl.

GMoney said...

Black Poop is also the name of Kyle Dodson and his homo teammates attempt at creativity. That was GHEY.

Is Ocho even going to be activated for the game? The Super Bowl is much too important to give someone a charity catch. I'd take the under.

Grumpy said...

Vice President of Strategic Engagement is the guy who sucks off rich alums. Akron will never win anything.

Anonymous said...

Dut,

I watched Dodson's announcement. The best part is the crowd's reaction when he yells "Ohio State"!

Lil' Strut

Brady said...

I just watched the Dodson announcement for the first time. Pretty funny. At least he did something original and not the fucking hat game. My favorite part about his signing is the bitching and moaning coming from Belima. I fucking hate that guy.

The Mesko prop bet might have to be moved to #1. There is no way the Patriots punt less than 4 times. The D line for the Giants is going to cause some havoc. I don't care how "terrific" Tom is. IS that the gayest nickname of all time? I think it might be.

Anonymous said...

On an unrelated note, the Browns are reportedly very interested in Donovan Mcnabb...kill me now.

-Damman

The Iceman said...

Jim Schwartz just sat down to be interviewed on the SVP show & van pelt felt it prudent to remind schwartz that's its live tv and radio before a question was even asked. ELITE.

Brady said...

Fuck me Damman. You're kidding me right? Jesus, this Holmgren hire just looks worse and worse by the day. Savior my fucking ass. Why don't we just hire anybody that had anything to do with the Eagles 5-10 years ago and get it over with. It's a fucking circle jerk in that front office. There is nobody there to question what the front office is doing. They are all buddies and seem to be having a great time running my team further into the ground.

Prime99 said...

I always enjoy gambling and prop bet posts. Sadly, I won't be in Nevada this weekend... Going to Vegas a week from today though!

NBC is professional. The definite preference out of the networks. No Simms or Buck? Yes please!

GMoney said...

Step 1: Childress
Step 2: McNabb
Step 3: ?
Step 4: PROFIT!!!

The Browns are one of the few franchises that make me happy to be a Redskins fan.

Prime99 said...

The Browns really are run like the underpants gnomes- great comparison!

Anonymous said...

Iceman...that's funny about Schwartz.

I think everyone would be happy to knwo that there is video out there now of Les Miles at some LSU function last night just ripping Gunner Kiel's faggot ass. Les Miles is the coolest Michigan Man alive.

--Drew

The Iceman said...

Great info, Drew. Makes me hate Les Miles a little less. A little.

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