Friday, February 05, 2010
I've been breaking down the Super Bowl in my own unique way since this blog's creation. This is the third year that I've instituted my 15-prong attack to figure out how Sunday's game will shake out. Three years ago, I successully predicted a Colts win and cover. In 2008, the numbers favored the Patriots but without covering. Last year, it had the Steelers by 14. So to sum up, the system is nailing the winner and the spread winner at a 66% clip. And I expect more winning this year. As a reminder, I don't know how this breakdown will go until I finish it. I know who I think will win, but we need to process everything and determine if the system agrees with my assessment or not. That being said, I like Indy and I would lay the points. I won't be rooting for Indy (and I'm not betting on the game either), but why would you bet against Peyton? I do have a feeling that the game won't be an instant classic though. But enough about what I think, let's analyze this thing:
QB - This has got to be one of the best head-to-head QB matchups ever, right? Well, who do you trust more? Brees, while awesome, really hasn't been that great ever since that Monday Nighter against the Pats. Manning did not lose a fucking game this season in which the Colts tried to win it. If Rex Ryan couldn't figure out Pey-Pey, Gregg Williams isn't going to either. Colts +5
RB - I really hate Joseph Addai. I don't know why exactly. Addai is just a stupid last name. Donald Brown completely fucked me over in fantasy this year. The Colts actually employ Mike Hart and NO ONE likes Mike Hart. I am definitely one of the few, but I actually like Reggie Bush and think he is really fun to watch when he has it going. Fun fact: 3 years ago in the G$FL, someone actually drafted Mike Bell in the second round. To this day, it is the worst draft pick in league history. Saints +3
WR/TE - Reggie Wayne went to The U and Austin Collie is a Mormon...what do you think they talk about? That should be a reality show. Pierre Garcon is playing for Haiti. Whatever. Does anyone doubt that Dallas Clark wears Carhartt clothing at all times? As far as the Saints go, I don't really trust any of those WR's. Lance Moore went to Toledo so you know he sucks. Jeremy Shockey is still in the top 5 of biggest douchers on the planet. Colts +4
OL - This is what pisses me off about the Colts. It feels like whoever they draft always turns out to be a stud. None of these guys starting for them were signed via free agency. Dan Snyder completely disagrees with this line of management. Remember when Kyle Turley ripped the helmet off that guy from the Jets and threw it up in the air? That was awesome. Since I don't know anything else about these two lines, that will be the deciding factor. Saints +2
DL - I'm getting sick and tired of hearing about Dwight Freeney's ankle and his hyperbaric chamber. He's either going to play or he isn't. I'm OK with not knowing until the game starts. Think about this: the Saints ass-kicking D-Line has possibly sent two Hall Of Fame QB's into retirement in this postseason. That is bad-fucking-ass. I respect that they are willing to take a few penalties to get some extra shots in. Saints +5 because I respect dirty play
LB - Gary Brackett is a poor man's London Fletcher but with an 8 times fatter face. That guy's face makes it look like Brackett should weigh as much as the average Colts fan. Shouldn't Scott Fujita look less like Bill Romanowski and more like Dat Nguyen? I hate Jonathon Vilma because he was undeservedly voted into the Pro Bowl over my man, London. And for that, we give the edge to the Colts. Colts +3
DB - This is another area where the Colts load up on guy's you never heard of and there they are, kicking ass and shutting down offenses. It's maddening. Why aren't they giving 45 million to DeAngelo Hall!!! I like Darren Sharper and Jabari Greer but the other guys for the Saints are terrible. Malcolm Jenkins has been terrible all season. I have more faith in the Colts DB's than I do the Saints. Colts +6
K/P - I honestly have no idea who either teams punter is because every time I watch these teams, they never punt. Matt Stover? Jesus, didn't he kick in the AFL? Garrett Hartley will certainly miss at least one field goal. He went to Oklahoma so he knows what it's like to be terrible in big games. Colts +3
Return Game - Chad Simpson or Reggie Bush? That's what I thought...next please. Saints +4
Coach - Isn't it interesting that the year after Dungy left TB, they won it all and the same thing can happen this year? THE GUY WAS NOT A GREAT COACH. Do you think that Jim Caldwell has ever given any instruction to Peyton? Of course not, he barely moves. Sean Payton, on the other hand, is fucking crazy...which I admire. You may not know this, but the Saints have something like 5 guys who once coached at Miami University on their staff so you know they're good. Saints +3
City - I have been to both. Indianapolis is a veritable wasteland of nothingness. If you like to be bored and not see anyone attractive, Indy is your place. New Orleans was one of the greatest places I've ever been to. If you've been there, you know what I'm talking about. If you have not, you have no idea what you are missing (likely The Clap). Saints +7
Fans - Saints fans are the mushy, feelgood story of this event what with their hurricane survival, years of frustration from the Saints, and awesome tits. Colts fans are a bunch of fat humps who are annoying as shit. They deserve this more...a lot more. Saints +6
Celebrity Fans - Colts (David Letterman, Brendan Fraser, Marc Summers, Mike Epps, Archie Manning)
Saints (Kim Kardashian, Britney Spears, Ellen DeGeneres, Steven Seagal: Lawman, John Goodman, Archie Manning) Due to Kim's outstanding ass, Saints +2...one point for each cheek.
Organization - The Irsay's took a big dump on Baltimore and set up shop in Indy. They do business the right way though by drafting well and keeping their studs for the duration of their careers. Bill Polian may have pooped on NFL history by throwing the last two regular season games, but he is a genius. Tom Benson is a terrible owner who has tried to move the Saints about a million different times. I've also seen him walk around with an open umbrella while indoors. Colts +8
Against The Spread - Surprisingly, the Saints are only 9-9 against the number this year. The Colts are 12-6. The Saints have only covered in 1 of their last 6 games. That is not a good trend. By the way, the over/under is a ridiculous 56.5. Colts +3
Add it up bitch...
And The Money Shot's official prediction for Super Bowl XLIV (that's 44 to you non-Asians reading this) is...Saints 32, Colts 31. Well, what do you know? My system has an upset brewing on Sunday night eventhough I don't agree with it. Maybe the Saints will score a touchdown with 20 seconds left and Payton goes for two. That would be outstanding. Although I would prefer it if the Saints could win but Shockey still loses. Is that possible? So as far as my pick goes, I'm taking the points and picking the over. I think that no matter which team wins, the QB is going to take the MVP trophy home. But if you want a sleeper pick on each side with decent odds, I like Reggie Bush and Pierre Garcon. Any prop bets that you like, share them in the comments.
As far as our playoff ATS contest goes, the standings look like this:
8-4: Li'l Strut
7-5: Naptown Wolverine
6-6: Grumpy, G$
5-7: Jeff, Dut, Tony B.
4-8: Damman, Mr. Ace, Andrew
*Drew has the odds in his favor, but I'm making a new rule. Pick the MVP, if that guy wins, you get an extra win. Because I dislike Drew, you see. My MVP pick is Reggie Bush.
THE BIG NEWS!!!! If you are like me and are just sitting at home and watching the Super Bowl by yourself and trying to make the wife shut up, stop by The Money Shot as I will be running a live blog. I will be breaking down the game as it goes LIVE here on the intertubes. It will likely be published at the end of every quarter. So if you are lame like me, come on by and talk smack in real time. Enjoy the game, people.