Saturday, October 03, 2009

Ace's Vegas Special

We are switching it up a little bit for this weeks picks. My picks thus far have been pretty shitty and it is time for a change. I have found that I make my best plays on either Friday night or Saturday morning; this makes absolutely no sense but that is just how it works...I know it has something to do with booze. Prepare to be dazzled by my sports betting wizardry.

Fuckeyes(-16) @ Indiana. The Fuckeyes have pitched to straight shutouts against better teams than Indiana, no reason they won't do it again. Seriously, Indiana is not going to score. The line is up to -17 now, but I got on the Fuckeyes early this week so I have them at -16. Shouldn't matter, I will be shocked if the Hoosiers keep this within four TD's. Fuckeyes -16.

Toledo(-4.5) @ Ball State. The only reason everybody isn't saying Ball State is the worst team in the nation is because of that abortion at Miami of Oxford. If they wouldn't have put up some points against Auburn 3rd stringers last week this line would have been double digits. Toledo is far superior. Weather permitting, they may cover the over themselves. Rockets -4.5.

East Carolina(-2) @ Marshall. ECU is 0-4 against the spread this year. They are 2-9 ATS when favored over the last three years. Marshall is 2-1 ATS and has pulled off upset victories in their last two games. Phil Steele likes Marshall, so I like Marshall. Marshall +2.

NC State @ Wake Forest(-3). NC State is number 1 in total defense. Really, they are. I know their schedule has been heavy on the cupcakes thus far, but that is not something to be ignored. They also rank 14th in scoring offense. Both teams are very similar but I believe NC State is better across the board. I'll take the points. NC State +3.

Michigan @ Sparty(-3.5). Sparty is favored by 3.5. This game started out as a pick and now is a 3.5 point spread...WTF? I'm guessing this is an overreaction by Vegas and the betting public to Forcier's injured shoulder, because...what else could it be? Sparty lost to ND, got beat by a directional Michigan team and them got rolled by Wiscy(don't let the final score fool you). Also, there is a very good chance of rain, which should dramatically change the game in favor of the 8th ranked rushing offense in the nation...that would be Michigan. I don't want the points, give me Michigan on the moneyline(+145).

Others picks that I like that will end up parlayed:
Temple(-6.5)...I just checked my account and I apparently bet on this game? Damn BlackBerry sports betting app.
Clemson(-12.5). Maryland hasn't covered a spread yet.
Cincinnati(-29). No explanation needed.
CMU(-8). Buffalo is terrible. Poor Turner Gill.
Texas Tech(-34). I would take this at -54.
Arkansas(-1.5). Arkansas will win big I believe. TAMU's first game away from home.
Tennessee(-2.5). Tennessee's rush defense will shut down Auburn's high powered run game. I like UNDER 51 in this one as well.
Marshall/ECU UNDER 48.

You're welcome in advance.

2 comments:

GMoney said...

Auburn will roll Tennessee. By the way, I bet on three of your picks...this is scary. (CMU, OSU, TT...also Auburn and Washington)

Mr. Ace said...

I went in thinking that Auburn was a steal at +2.5, but the more I looked at it I liked Tennessee to be able to keep it close and pull it out.

I like UW also. Sarkisian knows ND and will be ready for whatever they bring...although Golden Tate at RB/in Wildcat scares me.