Friday, January 02, 2009

The Prediction Hunter

Last weekend, I was sitting at home by myself as I was forced to come back and work on the 26th while everyone else that I knew was back in Naptown actually having fun. It's even more pathetic than it sounds. There was absolutely NOTHING to do. So I start looking through the On Demand channels for a movie to watch and decide upon a classic that I had not seen before. 1978's Oscar winner, The Deer Hunter, seemed like a good choice. Now this a very, very good movie that I would watch again but there is one aspect that pisses me off. You see, Deniro and Walken are from a hillbilly town in Western PA and work in a steel mill. They both go fight over in Vietnam. But they both are in love with Meryl Streep. Meryl Streep? Even in 1978 she looked like a person that would buy underwear with dick-holes. I just couldn't get over this. It was an awful casting decision.

As we head into the Wild Card round of the NFL postseason, it's important to remember this cautionary tale. EVERYONE is telling you that the road teams (none of which are underdogs) are going to win this week. Don't get fooled. Home field means a lot. You don't want to be the guy that picks the road favorites only to watch them get false start penalties and turnovers due to the crowd noise. Picking road favorites to go 4 for 4 is akin to me waking up tomorrow and being able to come up with a good metaphor. It ain't happ'nin'. And, if we can take anything from Walken, you don't want to be the guy clutching onto a photo of Meryl Streep when hundreds of Vietnamese hookers are throwing themselves at you. It's just stupid. Sometimes, the roads most traveled are the best.

You've got to think about this: the players, the coaches, the systems, the kickers. Who do you trust? When in doubt, always pick the home team. Especially if they're getting points. Now, onto the games:

Atlanta (-2.5) @ Arizona
The Falcons season is already deemed a success win or lose this game. The Matt Ryan story is going to end at some point this season. The thing about Atlanta that I like is that they play well with the lead. I'm not so sure about their chances if the Cards put up two quick scores and Ryan has to throw the ball more. The Atlanta defense doesn't really force any turnovers which is scary. Kurt Warner at home with perfect weather? I'll take it. The Falcons' Cinderella story ends in Glendale. Arizona 31, Atlanta 20

Indianapolis (pick) @ San Diego
You could argue that these are the two hottest teams heading into the postseason. It would not surprise me at all if the winner ended up going to the Super Bowl. Tomlinson and Gates are both iffy right now which isn't necessarily a bad thing since Sproles is the scarier running back at this time. For some strange reason, Tony Dungy has a tendency to lose to Norval Turner. I don't get it. Philip Rivers has played well this past month to get them into the playoffs. I am concerned that the Colts have no running game. Sure, Peyton can wing it, but the more physical teams tend to fair better in the postseason. The Colts haven't lost in two and a half months, they do this week. San Diego 24, Indianapolis 23

Baltimore (-3) @ Miami
Two great stories meet to give us a likely shitty game on Sunday. This is going to be a slam dunk. You lay the points here. The Ravens won in Miami by 14 earlier in the season by shutting down The Wildcat. I don't expect that to change this time. The only vulnerable spot in the Ravens D is deep and that just isn't an option in Miami's offense. NO ONE wants to play Baltimore even with their young and kind of crappy QB. That tough running game wears down the Dolphins. Baltimore 26, Miami 10

Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Minnesota
Tarvaris Jackson is better than I thought that he would be, but that just means he went from shitty to sucky. The Eagles D is going to blitz the shit out of him. Brad Childress truly is a dumbass and it makes sense considering that his mentor was Andy Reid. If Adrian Peterson doesn't run for 150, this could get ugly fast. While I truly believe that Donovan McNabb will kill the Eagles at some point this postseason, it isn't happening this week. I would take the Eagles here even if the line was 10. Get ready to celebrate, Mr. Ace. Philadelphia 30, Minnesota 17.

So, to recap, The Money Shot likes the home teams on Saturday and the roadies on Sunday. And we don't like Meryl Streep. And if you are a betting man, putting money on all of the road teams this weekend is like playing Russian Roulette with Robert ain't winning and will end up with a gaping hole in your head. See you on Monday.


J Beanie said...

For real predictions, check out my site.

Saying Sproles is scarier than LDT is like saying you are a better blogger than me, just not true. LDT has had a down year but has been playing much better during their win streak. I'd say Sproles has potential be a scarier back but since Turner doesn't know how to use him, he isn't. To quote you, "You've got to think about this: the players, the coaches, the systems, the kickers. Who do you trust?" You really trust Norv, Rivers and LDT over Peyton, Dungy and Harrison? Not a good pick.

GMoney said...

Sproles has been a bigger home run hitter all season than LT. He's a shell of his former self and he is clogging things up when they have to force feed him carries.

You're right. I need to look at my quote. But that was the same case last year in Indy and the Chargers kicked their ass. The Chargers win because the Colts couldn't even score against the Browns. Check and mate.

Tony B. said...

I can't disagree with your picks- however I have a real problem coming to terms with voluntarily choosing the Cardinals to win a playoff game.

GMoney said...

Jake Plummer once won a playoff game with them so it can't be that hard.

sweetbob said...

Colts by a field goal!

Mr. Ace said...

The Cardinals are much worst than you are giving them credit for. Turner will go nuts.

I can't really argue with any of the others, although I think the Colts will come out on top in the end. The Chargers are scary though, and I agree that I would take Sproles over Tomlinson in this game.

GMoney said...

I thank all of you for not calling me out. Even when I was brainstorming last night, I knew that the Deer Hunter/road favorites analogy made no sense. I just wanted to inform you all that I finally watched a movie that was released over 30 years ago.

Mr. Ace said...

Nobody had ever seen that movie, so nobody could call you out. And I wasn't gonna call u out because you busted out the underwear with dickhole joke. I miss Chappelle.

Dustin said...

I guess nobody knows football like G$! Anyone pay for these picks??

GMoney said...

It's obvious that I am a genius.