Friday, August 01, 2008
Since we are entering August today and that is the month in which almost every fantasy football draft takes places, I figured that I would drop some sporadic advice on my faithful readers a couple of times this month leading up to your drafts. Whether you take it or not is a moot point; unless you have a strong desire to finish somewhere between 5th and 7th place like I do each and every damned year. But nevertheless, I'm going to portray myself as an expert today and set the record straight as far as who the top five picks in your draft should be. Consider me a more muscular and less pedophilish(?) version of Eric Karabell or a less horny version of Matthew Berry.
Either way, it's time to start talking fantasy. And it's about fucking time. My first draft is in 3 weeks (The illustrious G$FL!) and here is how I would do it if I had picks 1 through 5:
1. LaDainian Tomlinson - If you're lucky enough to get the first pick, you want to make sure that you get a consistent touchdown producer with that selection. While LT is approaching the end of his fantasy football prime, he is still the slam dunk #1 pick this year. You may be tempted to take a certain record-setting QB here, but I implore you to pass on that. I've read reports that Tomlinson is pissed off that he couldn't perform to his standards in the playoffs last year and is in fantastic shape and hungrier than ever. That's great for fantasy owners, bad for AFC West defenses. Plus, and were basing these picks on a standard draft order of "up and down the river", if you REALLY want a great QB, how awesome would your lineup be if you could grab LT first, and then say T.O. and Romo on your next two picks?
2. Thomas E. Brady, Jr. - Say what you want to about taking a QB early in the first round, and we've all heard the reasons why "experts" say that you shouldn't, but if you are fortunate enough to grab Brady...you are DEFINITELY going to the playoffs no matter how bad the rest of your team is. In last year's G$FL, the guy that took Brady in the 2nd round took Laurence Maroney in the first round and still won the league due to Brady's awesomeness and the exhuming of Jamal's Lewis's corpse. It can be done. I don't think Brady puts up 50 td's like he did last year, but you can pencil in 40. And even in the 2nd and 3rd round, you will still get a Mo-Jo Drew or a Willis McGahee paired with a TJ Houshmandzadeh...you're going to be FINE drafting a QB at 2.
3. Joseph Addai - The worst pick in a fantasy draft is the 3rd pick. It's never a sure-fire pick and the likelihood of that selection being a bust is very high (see: Johnson, Larry or Jackson, Steven from last year). But I like Addai here. With Peyton's bulky, surgically-repaired knee, you know that the Colts will run the ball more. Best part about that, Addai doesn't split carries and gets almost all of the red zone touches. As long as he doesn't get hurt, you're getting 1200+ yards and 15 TD's. Now you do have to worry about Dead Gay Son Dungy benching his starters during your fantasy playoffs, but if you're not still alive, it doesn't really matter does it?
4. Adrian Peterson - I hate Peterson at 2 or 3 but I absolutely love him at 4. I've drunkenly argued this with commenter, Dut, numerous times as he states that AP should go 1-2. I just can't take a 2nd year player that high who has had injury issues and no semblance of a passing game in his offense. But the upside is too great to pass on him at 4. The only downfall of taking Purple Jesus this high is that you absolutely HAVE TO handcuff him with Chester Taylor. That means you that have to reach and waste a 4th or 5th round pick to do so. But that Vikings o-line is so freaking awesome that you're going to get fantastic production out of whichever one is starting.
5. Steven Jackson - I was listening to the dreadful Eric Kuselias on ESPN radio the other day and he said that no Ram has scored a rushing TD over the past two years other than Jackson. That sounds really good, but let's not forget that the Rams are terrible. Jackson, much like Addai, isn't splitting carries with anyone either. He catches the ball out of the backfield, too. The Rams will score points, mainly because they will be down 20 in every game this year, but garbage touchdowns count just the same as all the others. Jackson's health is a concern and his line is suspect, but the guy is a beast. Any higher than 5 is a reach for Jackson but it's a pretty good bargain here.
I'm not giving you guys the rest of my first round thoughts though. Most of my readers are in one of the leagues that I participate in and I don't want to give away all of my secrets. Since I'm never lucky enough to pick in the top 5, I figured I could at least give you something. Before you go subscribing to the Book of G$ though, remember that I'm the same guy that picked Shaun Alexander, Marvin Harrison, and Donovan McNabb in 3 of the first 4 rounds last year. How I finished one spot out of the playoffs is one of life's greatest mysteries.
Everyone has an opinion on a topic like this. Let me have it in the comments and I hope you all have terrible weekends. As for me, I'm only working until noon today and Rally In The Alley is tonight...Got Beavs? I'm probably going to puke...it's going to be great.